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Another beautiful day here in Seattle, not so much so for Rand Paul in Kentucky

July 7, 2010

At least not if the latest PPP poll is too be believed. It has Paul in a 43 / 43 tie with his Democrat opponent. The last two generic congressional ballot polls are not looking that great to me either with one showing the GOP up by 2 and the other a tie. Rasmussen show GOP leading by 6, if you do the RCP average thing that puts the GOP up by 2.7. Personally I would like more margin. There may be good news though Gallup is reporting Obama’s job approval rating is down to 38% among independents (the bad news is 38% of independents are deluded enough to believe he is doing a good job, along with 12% of Republicans and 81% (81???) of Democrats), and Politico is reporting the the Democrats are concerned that the DOJ lawsuit over SB1070 is going to hurt western state Dems.

Why is America’s job machine broken – Short answer, the decline in manufacturing jobs and a fear of a trade war. I would add a lack of long term investment and planning on the part of American businesses (discussed in yesterday’s New York Times) vs a quarter to quarter profit mentality. Don’t get me wrong – I’m not saying that businesses should forgo profits just that obsessive concentration on short term profits can (and does) hurt long term prospects. If I am a share holder I would be seriously considering what serves my interests better. Another reason is the high level of uncertainty about what the effects of the expiration of the Bush Tax Cuts and the implementation of Obama care will be. I would bet that if there is a big GOP win in November hiring will improve based on those two issues, but structurally we will still be in bad shape. Related – regime uncertainty

Chicago being sued again. No surprise.

4 Comments leave one →
  1. spinnikerca permalink
    July 7, 2010 7:50 am

    The PPP poll was taken the same time as the Rasmussen poll, just released later. PPP is one point down for Paul from its prior poll. Rasmussen was one point down for Paul from ITS prior poll. However, Rasmussen, like the Survey USA poll, have Paul several points in the lead (7 for Rasmussen and 6 for PPP if I remember correctly.) His approvals are down, though, from where they were, and once he comes back into the limelight, he has to work on that.

    • jenn1964 permalink*
      July 7, 2010 10:55 am

      Rasmussen consistently polls about 7 points higher than everyone else so I take that into account, on the other hand PPP is a Democrat polling firm so Paul’s opponent is probably getting a bump from their polling. That said KY was supposed to be an easy GOP seat and it isn’t looking that way right now.

  2. xbradtc permalink
    July 7, 2010 1:44 pm

    Not to endorse the MBA quarter to quarter mentality, but I don’t think that is currently having nearly as much effect on the lack of job creation as the anti-growth policies of the Obama administration.

    If you had set out to intentionally depress job growth, you would see a very similar regime.


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