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OK, I am slow so explain it to me slowly in small words and a loud voice

November 4, 2009

It’s the evening of the day after the NY-23 loss. Some people are looking at it as a moral victory, some as a crushing defeat, and some (like me) are confused about how this race became “The Race”. I admit I wasn’t paying much attention to NY-23 until this morning. Washington state has it’s own problems I didn’t feel the need to get caught up in a NY house race. The only reason I cared this morning is because the loss was so outside what I was seeing projected everywhere. I don’t know why he lost, but I suspect it was a combination of things. What I am wondering about is how this myth that NY-23 is some conservative bastion in upstate NY started? As near as I can tell it isn’t. It seems to be a purplish district.

Until 1983 the 23rd district was essentially the Bronx. That year the designation shifted to upstate NY. Since then there have been 4 congressmen from that district. 2 democrats 2 republicans. The 2 republicans were liberal to moderate with a 32 and a 68% rating from the American Conservative Union. One of them is now closely aligned with Al Gore’s environmental groups and the other is Obama’s Secretary of the Army. That doesn’t sound like a district in which Hoffman was guaranteed a win if only Scozzafava hadn’t been in the race. Especially given that Obama had carried the district, and that it went 49 – 47 Bush / Gore and 51 / 47 Bush / Kerry. In other words appears to me that it is a closely divided district.

I don’t know maybe I am wrong. I’m not a political scientist I could be looking at this data all wrong. If so like I said above explain it slowly in small words and a loud voice.

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