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More climate change shenanigans?

November 26, 2009

The New Zealand Government’s chief climate advisory unit NIWA is under fire for allegedly massaging raw climate data to show a global warming trend that wasn’t there.

(…)

In New Zealand’s case, the figures published on NIWA’s [the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric research] website suggest a strong warming trend in New Zealand over the past century:

But analysis of the raw climate data from the same temperature stations has just turned up a very different result:

Gone is the relentless rising temperature trend, and instead there appears to have been a much smaller growth in warming, consistent with the warming up of the planet after the end of the Little Ice Age in 1850.

(source)

(h/t)

The head researcher at the NIWA insists that there is a reasonable explanation for the adjustment of the data. Maybe it’s true, but in the wake of East Anglia and previous revelations of data manipulation and the refusal of researchers like Phil Jones to transparently explain their methods this looks worse and worse for AGW supporters.

Belmont Club

The Climate Science Coalition performed a simple test. They downloaded the raw data and plotted it. To their astonishment, the numbers looked nothing like the official figures. The official graph apparently contained adjustments. Worst of all, it was the project of a scientist who had been at the CRU around which a data integrity scandal is now swirling.

(…)

From one point of view these revelations come at a bad time for the CRU because they will keep the hacked documents purloined from their archives which show them in an unflattering light in the public view. But from another point of view they could be a godsend. All Dr Salinger has to do is show, with crushing scientific rigor, why the figures were adjusted. All Dr. Phil Jones has to do is demonstrate, with mathematical precision, why his carbon models can predict say, next year’s temperature. Because he could, if he had the science behind him. They could, if they had the data behind them.

That’s all there is to it. The scientific presentation of data is now necessary because “social proof” no longer suffices after these scandals. Ilya Somin at the Volokh Conspiracy correctly observes that most of us take technical matters on faith. Few of us understand rocket science or the theory of relativity. But if someone we trusts says “it’s OK” then we accept the arcane theory as true. When our doctor says swallow this tablet of 2-ethanoyloxybenzoic acid we do. We drink aspirin even though we don’t know why it works. The problem with the recent revelations at the CRU and NIWA is that they’ve destroyed the bond of trust. It’s as if your doctor prescribed a poisonous compound and you looked it up.

Exactly. That’s all I am asking. Show me a computer model that is accurate with-in a reasonable margin of error and you will lessen my disbelief in AGW. Show me good scientific reasons why the data has to be adjusted for that model to work and you go further. Show me why skeptics are engaged in “junk science” and you go further still. I have seen none of this. What I see is Al Gore flying around the world making ridiculous claims about hundreds of hurricanes a year and the imminent extinction of mankind.

-elsewhere-

A Palin/Beck presidential ticket – Sorry that’s a non-starter for me. I like Sarah but I need to see more depth from her on national policy before I could vote for her as President (just ask Obama supporters how voting on the basis of hope is working out) Beck on the other hand would get no support from me. There is something about him I don’t like and don’t trust.

Dustbury talks about the disappearance of basic mechanical competence in America
. – I’m not sure that’s entirely true, I think a lot of it is just going in different directions, but I have to admit that mandatory shop classes like I had in Jr. High wouldn’t be a bad idea. Everyone should be able to change a tire and do some basic home repairs. You should see some of the looks i get when I am in a parking lot in skirts and high heels helping someone jump a car because they don’t know how. (we had shop in high school too it just wasn’t mandatory and you had to chose wood, metal, or mechanical drawing. We also had a career center where you could take electronics, drafting, construction, agriculture and advanced auto but that was a 3 hour block per day plus an hour transit time)

I’m sorry this turkey looks undercooked and nasty. I hope it tastes better (and that no one died of food poisoning)

Joy McCann posted about Dragging the Line – I used to love this song. She also discusses her Thanksgiving routine which sounds remarkably like mine except I don’t bother with the list the night before and I tell people who complain to shut up or go get a hot dog and a big gulp at 7/11. I also withhold sex from repeat complainers until they do something major to get back on my good side.

Unreligious Right – Blatant Lies about cost

2 Comments leave one →
  1. genes permalink
    November 26, 2009 11:21 am

    I thought this statement was perfect.
    “We have discovered that the warming in New Zealand over the past 156 years was indeed man-made, but it had nothing to do with emissions of CO2—it was created by man-made adjustments of the temperature.”
    The new definition of Anthropogenic Global Warming.

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